In this modern and technological age, we humans are so full of ourselves. Because our civilization supposedly has advanced far beyond primitive society, we tend to think we know far more than we actually do. More often than not, the best we can claim is the ability to make educated guesses that may or may not reflect the situation.
Last night, before shoving off to bed, I checked the progress of Tropical Storm Danielle. I learned that it had been upgraded to hurricane status. Forecasters reported that they expected it to gain strength because of favorable conditions, including little wind shear in the area. Predictions indicated it would rise to a category 3 hurricane by week's end.
Less than 8 hours later (early this morning) I checked the status again. While it remains a category 1 hurricane, the forecast has changed dramatically. Now the thinking is that it won't become a major hurricane BECAUSE OF strong wind shear in the area. In other words, in a short period of time, the computers have shown light wind shear, then the exact opposite.
This provides another apt illustration that only Mother Nature really knows what's going on. We can make educated guesses, but our guesses are on target as much as they are off. In essence, it's a crap shoot!
Last night, before shoving off to bed, I checked the progress of Tropical Storm Danielle. I learned that it had been upgraded to hurricane status. Forecasters reported that they expected it to gain strength because of favorable conditions, including little wind shear in the area. Predictions indicated it would rise to a category 3 hurricane by week's end.
Less than 8 hours later (early this morning) I checked the status again. While it remains a category 1 hurricane, the forecast has changed dramatically. Now the thinking is that it won't become a major hurricane BECAUSE OF strong wind shear in the area. In other words, in a short period of time, the computers have shown light wind shear, then the exact opposite.
This provides another apt illustration that only Mother Nature really knows what's going on. We can make educated guesses, but our guesses are on target as much as they are off. In essence, it's a crap shoot!
especially when it comes to weather. as a farmer, i know this thouroughly!
ReplyDelete