As you've most likely noticed by my not infrequent posts about the weather, this is a subject matter that interests me greatly. Part of it has to do with the mysterious forces involved; Mother Nature is difficult to pin down! Another part of it has to do with numbers -- anything that can be categorized or analyzed via statistics is a sure draw for me.
Over the past week or so, I've watched the daily (sometimes hourly) changes in the forecasts for Hurricanes Danielle and Earl. At one moment, the forecasts call for x and then, almost in the blink of an eye, the prediction switches to y. What this tells me is that, in many ways, we're still novices when it comes to weather.
As it stands at this hour, Hurricane Earl is not predicted to make landfall in North Carolina -- forecasters believe it will remain to the east of the Outer Banks. However, if the low pressure trough moving out of the Midwest to the east coast jogs a little faster or drops a bit further south than expected, then the forecast will be changed again. As one of the "weather experts" stated in a report on The Weather Channel tonight, meteorologists have a general idea of where Earl is headed, but our scientific knowledge to date does not allow them to be able to make pinpoint projections as to the actual path.
Another example of the inexact nature of weather science can be found right here in South Bend. As we headed into the last day of August, it looked very certain that we would have our second month in a row of below average rainfall. A mild system was headed inland and predictions were for no more than one-half inch of rain.
As is par for the course around here, the forecast was way off. We received nearly 2 inches of rain yesterday and ended up almost one inch above normal for the month.
In fact, with one month to go in our water year (I have no clue why the water year runs from October - September), we've received a little more than 2 1/2 feet (nearly 31 inches) more rainfall than normal.
Two and one-half feet is a lot of excess water!!
Over the past week or so, I've watched the daily (sometimes hourly) changes in the forecasts for Hurricanes Danielle and Earl. At one moment, the forecasts call for x and then, almost in the blink of an eye, the prediction switches to y. What this tells me is that, in many ways, we're still novices when it comes to weather.
As it stands at this hour, Hurricane Earl is not predicted to make landfall in North Carolina -- forecasters believe it will remain to the east of the Outer Banks. However, if the low pressure trough moving out of the Midwest to the east coast jogs a little faster or drops a bit further south than expected, then the forecast will be changed again. As one of the "weather experts" stated in a report on The Weather Channel tonight, meteorologists have a general idea of where Earl is headed, but our scientific knowledge to date does not allow them to be able to make pinpoint projections as to the actual path.
Another example of the inexact nature of weather science can be found right here in South Bend. As we headed into the last day of August, it looked very certain that we would have our second month in a row of below average rainfall. A mild system was headed inland and predictions were for no more than one-half inch of rain.
As is par for the course around here, the forecast was way off. We received nearly 2 inches of rain yesterday and ended up almost one inch above normal for the month.
In fact, with one month to go in our water year (I have no clue why the water year runs from October - September), we've received a little more than 2 1/2 feet (nearly 31 inches) more rainfall than normal.
Two and one-half feet is a lot of excess water!!
if you like weather and data, there's another person who shares your interest, who has an interesting background -- he's a oyster farmer, and a financial market trader, and he loves weather too:
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http://ct-oysters.com/weather%20info.htm
Some Interesting Weather Observations
I believe weather and the financial markets have much in common. Both are giant reversion to mean systems. And obviously, weather has much to do with growing shellfish. The crossover has increased my fascination with the topic and led me to collect a but a sliver of the potentially available temperature data out there produced by NOAA.
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some more interesting charts if you follow the link. perhaps something of interest there.
(most of the rest of the site is about oyster farming, or the stock market. i'd guess with your political views, you're not too keen on that. however, he also thought the bailouts were disgusting, so you just might have more in common than you think.)
--sgl