Somebody Finally Noticed

Trey Smith

As regular readers of this blog well know, I have been highlighting the pitiful track record of economists in terms of the employment picture here in the US. Month after month the economists predict one thing and, once the results are in, it becomes glaringly obvious that they overestimated -- sometimes by huge amounts -- the projected job growth.

What really gets me is that the mainstream media doesn't act as if it notices these failed predictions at all. They keep going back to the same people to get next month's predictions and are shocked -- yes, absolutely shocked -- when these individuals and companies turn out to be wrong [yet] again.

Hand it to Reuters finally to admit the obvious!

The past year of forecasting U.S. payroll growth marks a bumpy road of U-turns on the timing of an elusive turning point to sustainable recovery, an analysis of Reuters polls shows.

In early 2011, an overwhelming majority of economists — 48 of 52 in the April poll and 38 of 46 in the May poll — said that turning point already had been reached.

More than a year later, it still seems a ways off.

Think about these figures. The first represents a failure rate of nearly 93%! Would you feel much confidence in weather forecasters who were wrong 93% of the time? The second figure -- 83% -- isn't that much better.

What we're left with are two equally disturbing assessments. Either most of the nation's leading economists are a bunch of dimwitted doofusses OR their so-called "predictions" are nothing more than propaganda to assuage the anxieties of the unwashed masses.

Take your pick!