Trey Smith
Last Friday the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the first month of this new year 243,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate (U.3) fell to 8.3 percent. This good news is a mirage. It is due to faulty seasonal adjustments and to the BLS birth/death model. In a prolonged downturn, seasonal adjustments and the birth/death model produce nonexistent employment.For the past several months, Roberts and statistician John Williams have disputed the glowing reports coming from Obama's Labor Department. While we've been told there is a slow, but steady, decline in the official unemployment rate, Roberts and Williams say it just ain't so.
The unadjusted data show a rise in the unemployment rate.
~ from The January Jobs Are Statistical Artifacts by Paul Craig Roberts ~
Some may suggest that these two simply are naysayers. There are always a few individuals who are never happy no matter what the government does or does not do. Maybe the employment picture truly is looking up and these two steadfastly refuse to accept it.
Since I have quoted these two several times in the past few months, I tend to think THEIR information is on the up-and-up; it's the government that is blowing smoke! I know that in my region of the country, there is no evidence whatsoever that unemployment is decreasing. In fact, in my county, it's going up.
But I also know that simply looking at one small area is myopic. My home county has experienced employment woes for decades, so our continued woes don't really tell me all that much. I'd like to hear from readers who hail from different parts of the US. How does the employment picture look in your locale? Do you think it's getting better, worse or about the same?
Trey: I live in Toy Town, just eight miles away from Chair City. Now they are just names. Thousands upon thousands once made toys, ice cream makers, toilet seats, clocks, wooden buckets, chairs, tables and all manner of home furnishings here. The biggest employers now are prisons, hospitals and retailers. After experiencing a company downsize in 2005 I now work in retail for 60% less pay. In speaking with our customers, my experience is the norm - if you are lucky enough to find a job.
ReplyDeleteIn Hawaii, the major industry is tourism (with the military and "diversified" agriculture making up the rest.) There have been efforts over the years to cultivate Hawaii as a silicon valley of the Pacific, a health toruism destination, or any other number of schemes to boost the economy. The visitor industry is not necessarily the venue of great jobs overall. Young people leave in droves -- the brain drain -- because it's hard to find quality jobs in a very high cost of living area. I have a friend of a certain age who is having a very difficult time finding a good job...she could probably be hired in her field in a minute on the mainland. The problem is we are a small community. Still, the currently published rate of 6.6 percent is not that high comparatively speaking.
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