Hang Ten

Trey Smith

Della and I will have lived in the Pacific Northwest for 20 years come this Fall. Except for a 2 year sojourn in parched Eastern Oregon (Pendleton), we have lived within 50 miles of the Pacific Ocean. Being near the marine layer and westerly flow has meant that one climatic aspect has dominated our lives: rain.

It rained a lot when we lived in Salem, Oregon. It rained even more frequently when we moved to Aberdeen, Washington, and we have sometimes felt as if we should build an ark since relocating to South Bend 4 1/2 years ago!

During all this time, there have been a few months now and again when the area received less-than-average rainfall. We might find that we're an inch or two low from the typical wet onslaught. When this has happened, the subsequent month makes up for the shortfall in a big way. For example, in December 2009, we ended the month about 3 inches below normal, but January 2010 made up for it by assaulting us with more than 18 inches ABOVE normal.

But last month assuredly was different. Average rainfall for December comes in at slightly less than 13 inches. We were nowhere near that! We recorded a mere 2.60 inches of rain. That's more than 10 inches below normal!

As of yesterday, we only have around 0.9 inches in the rain bucket for January and that puts us close to 2 1/2 inches down so far this month (with only 2 days of possible rain in our 7-day forecast). To put this in better perspective, we normally would have received 16.26 inches of precipitation from December 1 - January 8, but all we've gotten is 3.54 inches.

Now one certainly could say that there is an ebb and flow to climatic patterns. Averages are computed from many years which include high highs and low lows. I understand this. However, there is another factor that makes our dearth of rain even more astounding.

According to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, this winter was supposed to be wetter and colder than average. All the models indicated this. Not only have we been much drier than normal, but our temperatures also have been warmer.

Historically, mid-December - mid-January is the coldest period of the year for us. Of course, our definition of cold isn't the same as it is for most people in the continental United States. The average daily high temperature during this period is 45 degrees. We have seen numerous days in the mid 50s and only a handful of days in which the low temperature was less than freezing. Understandably, we have not recorded ANY measurable snowfall.

But it's not just the southwest Washington coast that has experienced warmer than normal high temperatures. According to a report published at Alternet,

Cities are seeing late-April temperatures at the start of January — Minot, ND hit 61 degrees, Aberdeen, SD hit 63 degrees, and Williston, ND hit 58 degrees, all-time record highs for the month of January.

All of these reports and more may represent nothing more than natural anomalies that occur from time-to-time. Next year the weather may return to "normal." But there is another possible explanation: global warming.

If it's global warming, then these new and weird readings may become the norm!