Month after month, we see the same thing. The learned economists make their predictions about the employment equation and, invariably, they turn out to be wrong! Sometimes, they only are a little bit off. At other times, they are way off.
The newest federal jobs report indicates that 80,000 jobs were added in October and that the unemployment rate dropped by .1%. Sounds like we should be slightly encouraged, doesn't it? But here's the problem: the numbers don't add up.
Depending on who you talk to, we need to create anywhere from 125,000 - 185,000 jobs per month just to keep even with the growing labor force. For anyone half paying attention, 80,000 is less than 125,000 and less than one-half of 185,000. So, if we couldn't manage to make it the waterline, how is it that the unemployment rate decreased?
That doesn't make a lick of sense!! If anything -- owing to the way mathematics works -- the unemployment rate should have increased. But that's not what our dear government is telling us.
It's not that too many people will notice this rampant discrepancy. As studies have shown for years, Americans aren't as mathematically proficient as citizens in other industrialized nations. Most people won't bat an eyelash at the fact that our blessed leaders are trying to sell us on the notion that 1 + 1 = 4.
Who knows? Maybe one of these days the government will declare that no new jobs were created in a given month, but the unemployment rate has dropped by 2.5%!!
We can have a party to celebrate.
The newest federal jobs report indicates that 80,000 jobs were added in October and that the unemployment rate dropped by .1%. Sounds like we should be slightly encouraged, doesn't it? But here's the problem: the numbers don't add up.
Depending on who you talk to, we need to create anywhere from 125,000 - 185,000 jobs per month just to keep even with the growing labor force. For anyone half paying attention, 80,000 is less than 125,000 and less than one-half of 185,000. So, if we couldn't manage to make it the waterline, how is it that the unemployment rate decreased?
That doesn't make a lick of sense!! If anything -- owing to the way mathematics works -- the unemployment rate should have increased. But that's not what our dear government is telling us.
It's not that too many people will notice this rampant discrepancy. As studies have shown for years, Americans aren't as mathematically proficient as citizens in other industrialized nations. Most people won't bat an eyelash at the fact that our blessed leaders are trying to sell us on the notion that 1 + 1 = 4.
Who knows? Maybe one of these days the government will declare that no new jobs were created in a given month, but the unemployment rate has dropped by 2.5%!!
We can have a party to celebrate.
I'm way out of touch but was aware of some of the mathematical tactics used in the UK unemployment statistics which included:
ReplyDeleteAfter being unemployed for a certain amount of time you were no longer seeking work but in a new category so not included.
As soon as you registered for a course, even if something like a "job seekers" course organized by the government, then you were no longer a statistic.
With these and other tactics, placing people in schemes and otherwise recategorizing them, it was quite simple for the statisticians to reduce unemployment levels as they rose in reality.
They use many such schemes here too. In fact, it seems like every so often, they create a new category in order to be able to keep the numbers within whatever their predetermined target range is.
ReplyDeleteBefore long, our current New, New, New "New Math" will be replaced with New, New, New, NEW "New Math".