Monday, May 23, 2011

When Hell Descends From on High

I lived in Joplin, Missouri, as a young child. My great grandparents and great aunt and uncle on my dad's side called Joplin home and my father was born there. Della lived there briefly and we both spent a lot of time in Joplin during the 2 years I was in grad school only 30 miles to the northwest in Pittsburg, Kansas. So, hearing that 25 - 30 percent of Joplin was decimated by a giant tornado yesterday strikes close to home for me.

When I learned that the local hospital (St. John's) suffered a direct hit, I thought back to the time 25 or so years ago when my paternal grandmother had heart surgery there. As I do not like waiting rooms -- generally, there are too many people in them -- I went across the street to a local park to shoot hoops. Looking at the videos from the mass destruction around the hospital today, there is a good chance that park no longer exists.

As I have shared in this space before, I grew up in tornado alley. While I have been near where a tornado has touched down, I have never experienced the hell on earth of suffering a direct hit. It is hard for me to fathom what the dead and survivors went through.

It seems to me on first blush that this severe weather season has been far worse than any in recent memory. We have seen several outbreaks of killer storms that have impacted much of the eastern half of the US. However, according to Greg Carbin of the National Weather Service's National Severe Storm Laboratory, this assumption is only half-true.

While the death toll has been significantly higher than an average year,
There is no indication of an upward trend in either intensity or numbers. We've had a lot more reports of tornadoes, but most of those tornadoes are actually the weak tornadoes, the F-0. When you take out the F-0 tornadoes from the long-term record, there is very little increase in the total number of tornadoes, and we don't see any increase in the number of violent tornadoes. It's just that these things are coming, and they're very rare and extreme, and they happen to be hitting populated areas. So right now, no indication of an upward trend in the strong to violent tornadoes that we're seeing...
As Carbin points out, what differentiates this year from others in the past is that these killer storms have been dropping down into populated areas instead of sparsely populated ones.

The tornado season isn't over with yet, so things could get worse before they get better. At about the time the tornado season winds to a close, the hurricane season starts up and, like last year, the prediction is for more named storms than average.

Ya think Mother Nature is trying to get our attention?

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