Thursday, December 4, 2008

Certain Uncertainty

In an earlier post today, "Hooray for the Atheists", I briefly touched on religious zealotry. The author of Forest Wisdom both left a comment here and broadened the discussion with "Let the Mystery Be...". One of themes this ongoing discussion entails is the concept of certainty.

Probably not a day goes by when each of us says or writes we are sure or certain of something. While we may be almost certain (99.999% sure), the truth of the matter is that we can't be entirely certain because, as far as our limited brain matter allows, NOTHING is certain.

Yes, what we have determined to be a fixed outcome may occur as we expect 99 times out of 100, but anomalies happen too. So, all that certainty genuinely means is that we expect this outcome to match many, many others.

Another problem with concept of certainty is that it's based on currently available knowledge or theories. An outcome that was certain in 1361 may not have been certain at all in 1994. Many of the incontrovertible facts that we hold to be certain today may be laughed at in 200 years.

Returning to the topic of religious zealotry, it consistently amazes me how some people can be so certain of their beliefs. While mathematical theorems can be [conditionally] proven based on the state of current knowledge and conceptualization, religious belief doesn't even have this shaky leg to stand on. No, these beliefs are based more on anecdotal information passed down through hundreds or thousands of years.

Even more astonishing to me is that those who hold to these non-empirical beliefs are often the very same people who pooh pooh empirically-documented beliefs [facts]. While there is no way rationally to prove or disprove the existence of a particular deity, our available understanding of the world can identify that global warming exists and is leading us toward ecological ruin. Yet, these kinds of individuals will toss aside all the science of climate change, while embracing the non-science of the existence of a personal God.

For them, all that is needed for certainty is faith, yet the very definition of faith itself means to believe in something you can't be sure of. Try to explain this to a zealot and they simply walk away shaking their heads and praying for your immortal soul.

It drives me bonkers. I'm certain of this. :-)

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