The Cracked Crystal Ball

Trey Smith

Over the past two years or so, I have shared many posts with you that zero in on the latest Jobs Report from the US Department of Labor. What astonishes me is that I find the same sort of phrase used month after month in mainstream media reports. It doesn't really matter whether the unemployment rate rises or drops, whether many jobs were added or too few. The phrase is there, nonetheless.

For the May report, as seen in this article from the Christian Science Monitor, the phrase I'm referring to is utilized as well.

What is this phrase? It goes something like this: "below economists’ expectations."

These nebulous economists never seem to get their predictions correct! Every month they predict xxxx or more and, when the report comes out, it's x, xx or xxx. More often than not, they aren't just off by a tad -- they are way off!

Imagine if we were referring to weather forecasters and not economists. If they kept predicting sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s when, in fact, the weather day after day was overcast, rainy and the temperatures were in the 40s, people would stop listening to them! The public would ridicule them.

So, why does the mainstream media continue to listen to economists whose crystal balls appear cracked and beyond repair?